Friday, March 20, 2009
While our congress is distracted killing capitalism in our banking system (and driving out the talent at the same time), the economy is showing signs of turning. Not only do we have two more weeks of drop in the US layoffs news (you can read about the trend on my previous post and see the updated chart every week on FirstRain) -- but smaller, thoughtful publications are starting to write about the turn.
From TradingMarkets.com "A senior economist for Wells Capital Management sees some positive signs the economy may be bottoming out and ready to take a turn for the better."
From Investor's Business Daily -- definitely worth a read for the litany of evidential points -- "Don't look now, but the economy is starting to turn. Recent data suggest it may start making up lost ground as early as the third quarter. A triumph of government policy? Hardly."
• A surprising 22% surge in February housing starts to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 583,000 units.
• A back-to-back jump in retail sales ex autos, in both January and February.
• A return to profitability at several major banks, including Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan.
• A doubling in the obscure but important Baltic Dry Index, a key indicator of global trade flows.
• An upwardly sloping yield curve, which Fed research suggests all but ensures a rebound by year-end.
From WSOCTV.com reporting on a University of North Carolina at Charlotte professor's analysis "A new forecast by a local economic expert predicts that recovery is just months away.University of North Carolina at Charlotte economist John Connaughton said Tuesday the recession is just one to three months from being over. He said recover in 2009 will be modest, but it will be strong in 2010."
It may take a while for our national papers to pick up on the trend since writing about disaster and the angry mob sells more papers/ads, but I think we are only a couple of months away.